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Why does the president's party almost always lose the midterms? Since 1934 there have been 23 midterm elections. In 20 of them the president's party lost House seats, on average 27 seats (sum of all 23 changes: -621 seats / 23 = -27.0). From 1938 to 1994 it lost 15 times in a row, under Democratic and Republican presidents alike. The only gains: 1934 (Roosevelt, 9), 1998 (Clinton, 4) and 2002 (G. W. Bush, 8). Political science offers two explanations. First, the public behaves like a thermostat:
Why does the president's party almost always lose the midterms? Since 1934 there have been 23 midterm elections. In 20 of them the president's party lost House seats, on average 27 seats (sum of all 23 changes: -621 seats / 23 = -27.0). From 1938 to 1994 it lost 15 times in a row, under Democratic and Republican presidents alike. The only gains: 1934 (Roosevelt, 9), 1998 (Clinton, 4) and 2002 (G. W. Bush, 8). Political science offers two explanations. First, the public behaves like a thermostat:
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